In a world grappling with rapid urbanization, the intense impacts of climate change, and a dire need for sustainable, resilient, and affordable infrastructure, generative design emerges as a beacon of hope. The introduction of generative design into the architecture, engineering, and construction landscape is ushering in a new era of efficiency & sustainability for ‘leveling up’ our built environment.
This report offers an exploration of how algorithm driven, automated, and outcome-based design methodologies are poised to redefine our built world; and specifically, critical infrastructure: transportation systems, water and energy assets, housing, and more. Join us in uncovering how critical infrastructure projects are being transformed through this State of the Industry Report on Generative Design for Critical Infrastructure.
“Almost without noticing, we have entered an era where the fundamental question is not “What can be done” but “What should be done.
Truly, this is the golden age of engineering.
But even more, it is a golden age for the individual engineer. Driven by technology, design is not dominated by the all-encompassing government design bureaus many imagined in the 1930’s, nor by an oligopoly of giant companies as many saw in the 1960’s. Instead, the basic tools to invent, design, and manufacture have become so inexpensive and widespread that “downsizing” has become at least as much an imperative in management as in design.
We are entering the age where we are limited primarily by our creativity. Our ability to imagine, and the courage to make our dreams into reality will be our most precious resource. In this age, the designer has a resource that most designers of the past could hardly imagine—the computer. Engineers who, less than twenty years ago, toiled into the night with log tables, slide rule, and pencils, making parts, then breaking them on testing machines, or designing circuits and struggling to get them to work can now design on their desktops with productivity hundreds to thousands of times greater. And the products of their minds in turn accelerate the process.
Autodesk Co-Founder
May 16, 1949 – Feb. 2, 2024
It is imperative that responsible parties, including utilities, developers, engineering consultants, and others stay informed of emerging trends and applications of generative design. This report is a compilation of data & insights from leading players of how generative design is revolutionizing project planning, design, and execution within water, power, housing, transportation, and other critical infrastructure sectors.
This is second golden age of engineering. An age where software can help design a sustainable, resilient future throughout the full lifecycle of critical infrastructure projects.
Read on to learn about the forcing factors at play that are rapidly changing the way those responsible for designing, building, and operating our built world are being forced to adopt to new realities.
Total construction spending stood at US $1.98 trillion in August 2023, a 7.4% increase since the previous year. This total spending was primarily driven by nonresidential construction spending (the majority of which is critical infrastructure), which recorded growth at a 17.6% year-over-year increase in August 2023.
And this doesn’t include the backlog of projects that already exist. As of August 2023, backlogs in the nonresidential segment had increased to 9.2 months and are expected to sustain the segment going into next year.
Engineering talent is in short supply, with a growing gap between supply and demand that puts the progress of important industries at risk and threatens to have a tremendous negative impact on the economy—equal to nearly 40% of the projected GDP impact of all talent gaps expected in the US through 2030.
A BCG analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data indicates that demand for engineering skills will grow by about 13% from 2023 to 2031.
The Japanese Ministry of Economy has predicted a deficit of over 700,000 engineers in Japan by 2030, and the German Economic Institute reported a shortage of 320,000 STEM specialists in Germany as of April 2022.
There is a 133,000 person engineer gap in the U.S. today, where 33% of roles go unfulfilled, and a projected 186,000 engineering job vacancies by 2031.
“Everywhere in the world right now [there] is the need for more talent, better talent,” says Martin Fischer, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University. Fischer has observed an “expectation of the younger generation to not do stupid work that could be automated. They don’t tolerate it. They just leave.”
The IEA has set a Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, which requires all new buildings and 20% of existing structures to be zero-carbon-ready by 2030.
According to the US Green Building Council’s 2023 report, sustainability is a top priority for most surveyed Engineering & Construction (E&C) firms, as it aligns with their organizational mission and business strategies.
Whereas nonadopters [of artificial intelligence] “might experience around a 20% decline in their cash flow from today’s levels,”
“With integrated digital technologies, our project managers can objectively assess project status, productivity, and any risks, and [can] make data-based decisions more quickly to improve safety, performance, and outcomes,” says Francesco Tizzani, group manager of digital construction at Leighton Asia, an international construction contractor headquartered in Hong Kong and part of CIMIC Group. “The technologies also reduce manual reporting, enabling our people to focus on analyzing intelligent data to improve project delivery.”
The way we’ve designed our infrastructure in the past is not going to succeed in this new era. There’s too much work to be done, not enough talent to do it, and too many new requirements to effectively and affordably build the infrastructure of the future we need.
As you read on, our objective is to educate interested parties on how critical infrastructure projects are, and will be, transformed with generative design technologies. We will focus on real world applications of generative design in real infrastructure projects around the world, as well as key success metrics for organizations adopting generative design as part of their workflows.
But before we get there, we’d like to propose one other objective: a new success metric by which all relevant industry players should measure themselves by…
This makes sustainability paramount – not only to reduce environmental impact but also to ensure resilience, adaptability, and cost-efficiency over decades.
For too long we’ve focused on measuring the success of projects after the asset is built. Were we within budget? How long did the project take? Does this meet the needs of our communities, now and into the future?
In other words, we are reactively measuring our success. We track the intimate details of lagging success indicators like the total cost to operate and every iota of carbon produced, but fail to proactively address these concerns during the planning phases of projects.
We need to shift to proactive measurements of success. And one measure, in particular, stands head and shoulders above the rest…
For purposes of this report, we are comparing generative design and AI-powered design methodologies to manual design in critical infrastructure projects.
Generative design, on the other hand, is an iterative design process that involves the use of algorithms and computational techniques to generate a broad spectrum of design options, typically optimized for specific predefined criteria.
Artificial intelligence is often used to power generative design software and the design generation & options assessments that come with use of these programs.
Critical infrastructure refers to the physical assets that society relies upon for everyday functioning and overall well-being. For context of this report, we focus on critical infrastructure in the built environment. The next slide outlines the exact asset types we’re referring to.
| Class of Critical Infrastructure | Vertical Asset Examples | Horizontal Asset Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Transportation Systems | Airports, railway stations, bus terminals, EV charging stations, and seaports. | Roads, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels, and runways |
| Energy Infrastructure | Power generation plants (hydroelectric dams, wind farms, solar parks, waste-to-energy plants, and nuclear facilities), oil refineries, and gas processing plants | Power lines, pipelines for oil and gas, and related distribution networks |
| Water & Wastewater | Water and wastewater treatment plants, water towers, pumping stations, and solid waste | Aqueducts, pipelines, drainage systems, and water distribution networks |
| Communication | Cell towers, communication hubs, satellite dishes, data centers | Fiber-optic lines and cable networks |
| Housing & Residential | Single-family homes, multi-family apartments, condominiums, and public housing facilities | Sidewalks, driveways, yards |
| Public & Commercial Buildings | Government buildings, hospitals, schools, malls, office towers, cultural institutions (like museums or theaters), and sports facilities | Parking lots, green spaces |
| Emergency & Protective Services | Police stations, fire stations, emergency response centers, and military installations | |
| Industrial Infrastructure | Manufacturing, warehouses, hazardous waste plants, chemical plants, and storage facilities | Industrial parks and related distribution systems |
| Generative Design | Generative AI |
|---|---|
| Quantitative | Qualitative |
| Defined rules-based procedure | Train, learn, and create |
| Deterministic outcomes | Indeterministic outcomes |
| Adaptable parametric rules | Statistical model weights |
| Predictable and explainable results | Unpredictable response |
| Generative Design “please create an apple.” | Generative AI “please create an apple.” |
|---|---|
| Generative Design software will create an apple - based on specific rules and parameters it’s previously been given and/or that the user inputs. You’ll know exactly how it produced the output and why. | Generative AI will create an apple… but from data and sources that are hard to pinpoint… and may even ‘hallucinate’ when producing an answer. You don’t really know what you’re going to get, or why. (I wanted an apple… not an Apple!) |
SEPTEMBER 12. 2022
Generative design harnesses the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to generate design iterations based on constraints identified by the designer or engineer. Generative design uses AI to some extent, but it is just one step in the process. Humans are required at the beginning of the process to define constraints and at the end of the process as the final decision-maker. After all, someone needs to sift through the list of design iterations generative design creates!
Depending on the definition, generative design can be traced back to Gerald L. Delon’s 1970 paper A Methodology for Total Hospital Design.
As CAD software began to proliferate throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s, programmers began applying generative design to component level design – and continue to do so today. Generative design aids engineers in creating new options like individual parts of a car, variations of a type of sneaker, and unique architectural arrangements.
But only recently has generative design hit the ‘mainstream’ in critical infrastructure projects – and even then, many industries are not yet served by a specific company or solution.
This section of the report provides a (non-exhaustive) list of generative design companies solving challenges in specific industry verticals, as well as the project phases they are best applied in.
| Class of Critical Infrastructure | Vertical Asset Examples | Horizontal Asset Examples | Generative Design companies serving the vertical |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation Systems | Airports, railway stations, bus terminals, EV charging stations, and seaports. | Roads, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels, and runways | ALICE Technologies, Autodesk, Bentley, ALLPLAN |
| Energy Infrastructure | Power generation plants (hydroelectric dams, wind farms, solar parks, waste-to-energy plants, and nuclear facilities), oil refineries, and gas processing plants | Power lines, pipelines for oil and gas, and related distribution networks | Transcend, Dassault Systèmes SE, SBS, Aurora Solar, OpenSolar, PVComplete, Verdiseno, Hexagon AB, PVcase, XENDEE, Enverus |
| Water & Wastewater | Water and wastewater treatment plants, water towers, pumping stations, and solid waste | Aqueducts, pipelines, drainage systems, and water distribution networks | Transcend |
| Communication | Cell towers, communication hubs, satellite dishes, data centers | Fiber-optic lines and cable networks | Cadence, CoolSim, OpenTower, ASMTower |
| Housing & Residential | Single-family homes, multi-family apartments, condominiums, and public housing facilities | Sidewalks, driveways, yards | Autodesk Forma, Hypar, Finch, Urbio, Augmenta, Fotor, Parallelo, AiHouse, Binary Habitats, Archistar, ARK, CONIX, TestFit |
| Public & Commercial Buildings | Government buildings, hospitals, schools, malls, office towers, cultural institutions (like museums or theaters), and sports facilities | Parking lots, green spaces | Infrared.city, Sidewalk Labs, MetricMonkey, AgiliCity, Outline AI, CITYPLAIN, Arcol, Consigli, PassiveLogic, Plooto, Spacio, TestFit, Omrt, Digital Blue Foam |
| Emergency & Protective Services | Police stations, fire stations, emergency response centers, and military installations | ||
| Industrial Infrastructure | Manufacturing, warehouses, hazardous waste plants, chemical plants, and storage facilities | Industrial parks and related distribution systems | FlexSim, WZL Aachen, smartdraw, CreateASoft |
Generative design software can be applied during various phases of critical infrastructure projects.
Generally, we find generative design software most applied in the planning & conceptual design phases of projects; however, there are uses cases throughout detailed design and construction.
The ‘Cheat Sheet’ on the next slide provides a nice overview of some of the companies and the phases of projects they support – while not all are generative design (some are purely AI or generative AI) – it paints a nice sample of examples throughout project lifecycles.
Special credit to Stjepan Mikulic of the AI in AEC Hub for creating the initial version of this one
Despite its emerging importance in critical infrastructure, generative design is already making real impacts in projects around the world.
In this section, we break down case studies by critical infrastructure vertical – showcasing the tangible impacts of generative design on project workflows and project outcomes achieved.
We then end the section with a call to action for Utility and AEC/EPC companies interested in adopting these technologies, recommending KPI’s by which they can measure the success of the use of generative design within their organizations.
“The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law will make a once-in-a-generation investment of $350 billion in highway programs through 2026. This includes the largest dedicated bridge investment since the construction of the interstate highway system 67 years ago.
The need for new infrastructure is urgent, with 1 in 5 miles of highways and major roads, and 45,000 bridges in the US alone in poor condition. State DOTs and the industry have more reasons than ever to transform the way transportation infrastructure projects are designed, built, operated, and maintained.”
VP, AEC Design & Engineering Strategy
Autodesk
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PR - how your firm talks about generative design
Projects & Profit - how your firm recoups ROI with generative design software
People - how you attract, train, and retain individuals that utilize generative design
How often does your marketing (website, advertisements, collateral, etc.) emphasize generative design as part of the value your organization brings to your customer?
How often are you mentioned in news outlets, social, etc. (Share of Voice) for topics related to generative design?
How often are leaders sharing topics related to generative design, both inside and outside of the company?
Is generative design listed as a strategic priority on your organizational communication roadmap?
Do you showcase case studies around outcomes created for customers by utilizing generative design tools?
% of applicable employees familiar with the concept of generative design
% of applicable job descriptions mentioning generative design or requiring experience in building and/or utilizing generative design tools
% of applicable employees using generative design software on critical infrastructure projects
% increase in job satisfaction for employees using generative design tools
The use of generative design in critical infrastructure projects represents a transformative approach in how we plan, design, and optimize infrastructure projects in the second golden age of engineering.
By leveraging generative design tools, the world’s designers can effectively address the most complex infrastructure challenges; leading to substantial cost savings, streamlined project planning phases, and ultimately the reshaping of entire urban landscapes…
Creating sustainable, adaptable, inclusive, and resilient cities of the future.
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